Robot Socialism - When the machines do the work, what do the people do?

Technology surrounds us in ways almost nobody imagined 50 years ago. Some technologies, like smart phones, are well developed. Other technologies, like self-driving vehicles, are just entering into the market. Looking forward 50 years from today, technology advancements will make everyday life look very different than it does today.

Technology developments have lead to improvements in efficiency, safety, entertainment and many other things that impact all of us every day. Vehicles have come a long way in the past 50 years and many are equipped with lane departure systems, automatic braking, blind spot warning systems, and more. There are vehicles on the road today that are mostly capable of fully-autonomous driving. It isn’t hard to imagine all vehicles 50 years from now will be self-driving. According to the US DOT, drivers in the US average over 1000 miles per month. What will people do instead of driving once cars drive themselves? The trucking industry will look completely different with self-driving trucks delivering cargo. Ride sharing companies like Uber and Lyft will not have to hire any drivers with self-driving cars. Trains conductors, pilots, and other transportation professionals will also be replaced by machines. What will these people do during the time they would have been working?

Today, analysis of massive amounts of data is done extremely quickly using high performance computing networks. We are just beginning to scratch the surface when it comes to data analysis and analytics capabilities. In 50 years, all financial and accounting data will be available online to accountants and auditors. However, accounting and auditing functions will be managed by machines analyzing all transactions in real-time to ensure they are executed properly. Auditors will identify and analyze anomalies instantly. The idea of people pouring over documents, converting data from its native storage to primitive, people-friendly spreadsheets will seem unnecessary. The machines will perform accounting and auditing functions far more quickly and accurately than individuals could. The only auditors will be those auditing the code that the machines are running to make sure there are no errors. So, what will the accountants and auditors do while the machines are running?

Medical care will likely look very different in 50 years. As surgery progresses from machine-assisted, to human-assisted machines, and ultimately to fully-automated surgeries. The training and practice surgeons require and the countless hours spent in operating rooms will no longer be necessary. What will these people do instead of school and medical practice? What used to be a blood pressure machine in the grocery store now measures weight, BMI, blood pressure, pulse, and more. Medical visits for coughs, colds, allergies and even more complicated diagnosis will be handled by machines.

Major agricultural companies have invested heavily in automation technologies. Fields can be planted and harvested through machines that don’t require much human oversight. In 50 years, the human oversight will be unnecessary. Most food produced in the world will not touch human hands until it is consumed at some point in the future. This includes not just production, but distribution, stocking, and sale. So, what will all the people who do those jobs today do?

The biggest shift of time from humans to robots will come once robots have sufficient dexterity to perform jobs such as plumber, electrician, and mechanic. These blue collar jobs are some of the most difficult jobs to transition to machines, however it is just a matter of time. It is conceivable in the next 50 years to see robots capable of doing these jobs. When that happens, what will the blue collar workforce do?

When there are billions of people who don’t need to work, drive, or really do much of anything from a productivity standpoint, how does society adapt? When we find ourselves in this reality, the ideas we have around working and compensation quickly breakdown. When there are so few jobs for people to do, the idea of paying people for work, and those same people using the money they make to pay for goods and services, doesn’t make sense.

The entire economy will undergo massive changes. Frankly, it is harder to envision what the economy looks like is much harder than envisioning what machines will be capable of doing. It seems to me the most likely option will be for society to adopt some socialist ideas. People will need the services of the machines which took their jobs, however due to the limited number of jobs available in this new economy, they wouldn’t be able to pay for the service. Sharing of resources in this scenario makes the most sense. Of course there will be limits on the sharing to prevent individuals from abusing the system, but for the most part the sharing must be done without a traditional cost, aka money.

It may be that people are required to contribute in other ways in order to improve their quality of life, but maybe not. Regardless, generations of adults will need to be transitioned from the workforce to the non-working class and the new generation will grow up in a world where their parents don’t have to work. As robots advance, humans efforts will be continually replaced. Creating a fair system to incentivize people whom society needs to be workers and to disincentivize non-workers from abusing the system will be a huge challenge for our society. Robots have the potential to fundamentally change economies world-wide.